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A bit of a rough week last week, but we can turn it around easily enough. I have 5 selections for the Australian NRL this week/weekend and I will add them all in one post for ease.

Wests Tigers v Manly Sea Eagles
Thursday 10:50 (BST)
Bet: Wests Tigers 1-10
Odds: 3.40 Bet365
Stake: 2 units

North Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels
Friday 10:50 (BST)
Bet: North Queensland Cowboys 1-10
Odds: 3.40 Bet365
Stake: 2 units

Canberra Raiders v South Sydney Rabbitohs
Saturday 06:00 (BST)
Bet: South Sydney Rabbitohs 1-12
Odds: 3.20 Bet365 3.15 888 Unibet
Stake: 2 units

Cronulla v Newcastle
Sunday 05:00 (BST)
Bet: Cronulla 1-20 Use 1-10 and 11-20
Odds: 1.78 Bet365 Ladbrokes Coral
Stake: 2 units (Use dutch stakes –  See below)

St George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs
Sunday 07:10 (BST)
Bet: Canterbury Bulldogs 1-10
Odds: 3.75 Bet365 4.00 Ladbrokes Coral
Stake: 2 units

Wests Tigers v Manly Sea Eagles

Of all the teams I backed last week I was most disappointed by Wests. They just didn’t have the right game plan and there were some what should have been easy wins that they did nothing to exploit or take advantage. But here I am backing them again.

Manly are in chaos with a head coach that doesn’t want to be the head coach and he’s awful. The Raiders, Titans and Knights all cop abuse for having bad defences and rightly so, but it says something when Manly have conceded more than all those sides. Wests still have their guns all playing and hopefully will use them better than last week, cant see how they’d use them worse, Wests also demolished the Sea Eagles 38-12 away this season but big wins are still a rare commodity in the NRL.

This bet has landed in a combined 36.36% of these sides combined matches this season, when we factor in given win/loss this goes up to combined 18/26 or 69.23%. This means given a Wests win which the bookies expect to happen 60% of the time means this lands at 41.4%. With both these probabilities better than the 29.4% offered here we have a value bet.

North Queensland Cowboys v Parramatta Eels

I’ve wanted to back this all seasons after loving the Cowboys last year and here we have a prefect reason to do so. Wooden spoon honours at stakes here and in Thurston’s last year and last ever-game in Townsville I’m happy to side with the Cowboys.

Emotional reasons aside the Cowboys have won 4/6 games by 1-10 margins and their biggest win is by 14. 11/16 Eels defeats have been by 1-10 too. Given us a given combined win/loss probability of 68.18%. With the bookies estimating at 63% after accounting for over round this gives us an implied probability of 42.95% substantially higher than the 29.4% on offer.

Canberra Raiders v South Sydney Rabbitohs

We talked about the bunnies injuries last week. Well guess what they are all back. Inglis, Johnson and Graham with Hunt on the wing. With all these upgrades I cant look past Souths. Canberra surprised me last week but they won on the back of a completion rate we’ve not seen them hit all season. They still have the worst record of any side v top 8 even after beating the Roosters.

On the math side were taking the 1-12 v 1-10 because its a slightly bigger edge with the bookie offering Souths by exactly 12 at 16/1. 9/13 Canberra losses have been by 1-10 as have 8/15 Souths wins. Just using outright combined records this gets us implied probability of 34.09% so edge there. Once we adjust for given combined win/loss this rises to 35.9% with edges in both spots, Raiders HFA and Souths with bodies back another value bet for me.

Cronulla v Newcastle

If you need help calculating dutch stakes use https://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator

If you are unsure how to use the dutch calculator just put in what your total 2% stake would be on the bottom then the odds for 1-10 (3.4) and 11-20 (3.75) and wham watch it do the rest. It will tell you exactly what to bet on each to secure maximum value.

Bit of a different take on the WM front but this is something I really like. Cronulla are a great home side but 1.36 is a low price for any team in the NRL so I find it crazy we can boost that to 1.78 by forfeiting the 21+ wins which I’m happy to do. All but 1 of the Sharks wins have come by 1-20 margins with 10/13 Knights defeats coming by 1-20. At Shark Park I really struggle to see a Knights win but with the Sharks only 21+ win coming v the Knights I’m expecting a little extra resistance. Id be going 3% stake if 2 of those 3 losses weren’t Storm and Roosters away but this Sharks side aren’t quite on the level of these two yet.

St George Illawarra Dragons v Canterbury Bulldogs

Its worth saying the 3.75 is preferred at Bet365 to the 3/1 at Ladbrokes Coral unless you can odds boost to 4.1. Now that is confusing so brief explanation before I move onto why Canterbury. I estimate true draw odds at about a flat 30/1. 365 settlement rules gives us a chance to win in extra time where I’d give a sight edge to the Bulldogs with ever so slightly better late game and field goal skills. 3/1 is a 25% probability 30/1 implies a 3.33% probability.

Given the difference in prob between 3.75 and 3/1 is 1.67% this gives us a slight extra edge at lower variance. With the odds boost this diff moves to 2.67%. Or to put it another way the odds on Bulldogs winning in ET have gone from 58/1 to 36/1! Basically if you have an odds-boost Ladbrokes if not 365.

Anyway Bulldogs look good with Lachlan Lewis who looks really good in defense. Luciano Leilua basically has been the entire Dragons attack for the past 3 weeks but Jackson can defend and both the Bulldogs halves are above average defenders. The Dragons are still a bad enough side and I think we easily get this result more than 26.67% here.

Good luck,

Chris

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