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Excuse the sizeable post but there are a number of bets for Saturday’s NRL and if you want the top prices you have to get on early, which is why I’m getting this post out on Wednesday evening. Weekend domestic tips will be posted once the markets become available.

NRL Saturday 8:30am
Match: South Sydney v Parramatta
Bet: Souths 1st Half winning margin 1-8
Stake: 2 points
Odds: 3.5 Bet365

Rationale: Souths are the best 1st half team in the league with 11 wins out of 17 and a points diff of +76. Parra on the other hand have lost 10 of 17 1st halves with a points difference of -82. They have Hayne on the wing this week so they might actually be able to generate some yards early in sets but they are no match for a Souths side determined to do better last weeks performance.

NRL Saturday 10:35am
Match: Melbourne v Canberra
Bet: Melbourne 1st Half winning margin 1-8
Stake: 2 points
Odds: 3.75 Bet365

Rationale: I like this bet a lot. Canberra are a good 1st half team but at home the Storm are the Storm and with no Croker I can’t see the Raiders winning this one.

The Riders can keep it tight though, with both sides having 9 1st half wins to their name this season. The 3.75 here is also significantly better odds than we’ll get on Storm to win the game by 1-10 and I’m reluctant to take the handicap, meaning this option presents the best value around.

NRL Sunday 5am
Match: Gold Coast v NZ Warriors
Bet: NZ Warriors 1st Half winning margin 1-8
Stake: 2 points

Rationale: There’s a 71 points difference between these teams in 1st halves after a combined 34 games. Warriors welcome back Blake Green at 6. Warriors have a good away record this season, better than their home record actually and the difference between these to would be perceived either greater were or not for the Storm’s 38 point victory in the 1st half v the Warriors.

Here’s hoping for lots of profits!
Chris

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