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Today’s free tip comes from our rugby specialist Chris Thomas from Solid Punts who is already up almost 4 units for the month of August. If you are looking for a very profitable rugby betting tipster, Chris is your man!

Today’s Free Selection:

Thursday 9th August – 10:50am (BST)
North Queensland Cowboys v Brisbane Broncos
Bet: Brisbane 1-10
Odds: 3.40 Bet365

Rationale:

Brisbane have abandoned their questionable team selection in recent weeks with Boyd returning to fullback and Isaako to the wing. Brisbane won this meeting earlier this season by 4 points and even with Pangai Jr. and McGuire out they have the better pack.

The Cowboys have looked a bit better in recent weeks but I’m still far from sold on them. Of Brisbane’s 11 wins this season 9 have come by 1-10 winning margins. At the same time 10/15 Cowboys losses this season have come by 1-10 point margins. With the Broncos win best priced at 1.67 or a probability of 60% and 3.4 odds on the wining margin market (30% probability) prices imply half of Brisbane’s wins in this game will be by 1-10 points. Given the track records of both sides this season we’d expect this to occur well over 60% of the time giving us significant extra value by betting the winning margin market.

Good luck,

Chris

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