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Hi guys, I just want to get out two early selections for this Saturdays football, I am looking at quite a few more bets that will be posted either tomorrow or Friday.

Championship – Saturday 3pm
Match: Leeds vs Rotherham
Bet: Leeds win and over 1.5 match goals
Odds: 1.67 with Coral
Stake: 1.5 points

League One – Saturday 3pm
Match: Portsmouth vs Oxford
Bet: Pompey -0.25AH
Odds: 1.61 with BetVictor
Stake: 1 point

Leeds vs Rotherham

Leeds are flying after two games having beaten two of the promotion favourites in Stoke and Derby. I was of the opinion that when Bielsa was appointed that he would either be a huge success or he would walk out after 12 games with the club near the foot of the table. Although its too early to suggest that he will be a huge success it is looking more likely.

No side has scored more than the 7 goals that Leeds have so far and what’s more impressive is that these 7 goals have come from 12 SOT, a strike rate of 58% Only 3 sides have had more SOT that Leeds, which is promising for our bet.

Defensively they look pretty good with just 5 sides conceding fewer shots than Leeds, although they are conceding 4.5 SOT per game, which sounds a lot, but have only conceded 2 goals. So for every 4.5 SOT they concede. Rotherham are averaging 4.5 SOT target a game, so there is a chance that they will score.

However, Rotherham have conceded an average of 15 shots per game and 6.5 SOT, which has led to 5 goals conceded, so for every 2.5 SOT they conceded 1 goal. The xG is just 0.7 and from open play just 0.25 with an xGA of 1.8.

This means that should Leeds continue with their same attacking intensity with an average of 6.5 SOT they are likely to find the net at least twice and hopefully more. Leeds like to get players forward and this has meant that they xG is 1.5 and their xGA is 1.5.

Ipswich who are a poor side, managed 14 shots vs Rotherham and were actually a little unlucky to lose the game and on another day could have won the game comfortably.

Whilst this is a local derby of some degree, I think the confidence is so high at Leeds then I can see them running out clear winners here. Rotherham aren’t a good side and whilst Brentford beat them 5-1 and a poor Ipswich side lost to them last week, the away side did have the majority of possession, won the shot and corner count. I don’t think Leeds will be as forgiving as Ipswich.

Portsmouth vs Oxford

Pompey have started the season well with a fortunate win over Luton and then a well-deserved win at Blackpool last weekend. This week they are at home to Oxford. Its with Oxford we will start with.

Oxford have registered just 19 shots in their two games – only 3 sides have had fewer and just 6 SOT, again only 3 sides have had fewer. They haven’t found the net yet.

Defensively they are even worse – 33 shots conceded in the 2nd worst in the league and 18 SOT, the worst in the division, conceding 6 another league high.

They lost their keeper in the warm up last weekend, when he snapped his finger and the bone burst through the skin and is out for at least a month so have a 23 year lad on loan from Derby, having played just 10 1st team games again on loan or in the league cup.

Since the turn of the year they have played 22 league games and won just 7, drawn 3 and lost 12
Away from home they have won just 2 games since November

Samir Carruthers is out for a few months and it appears to be a side full of new signings and loan signings which are struggling to gel

Manager Karl Robinson has so far blamed the midfield and then the defence for the opening two games and the fans are far from happy.

Pompey are good at both ends of the pitch. Matt Clarke and Whatmough have perform well at the back. Only 1 side conceded fewer SOT than Pompey.

They have not registered many shots or SOT but they are clinically with 50% of their SOT resulting in goals, a league high.

With Pitman and Curtis they have one striker that has proven quality at this level and then other who looks like he may be a real success at this level.

With Oxford being so poor at the back and Pompey generally keeping this tight I can see a narrow win for the home side.

Good luck,

James.

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