Here are my best PL bets for the weekend. My current PL form is 41.5% ROI, which I am more than happy with. We have already taken the over 2.25 line in the Bournemouth vs Everton game, with the line now out to 2.5/3 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move out to 3 before kick-off. Sometimes the early bird definitely catches the worm.
Right what do we have this weekend.
Premier League – Saturday 3pm
Arsenal vs West Ham
Bet: Over 2.5 match goals & BTS
Odds & Bookie: 2.00 with Marathon Bet
Stake: 0.5 units
Given that over 2.5 goals is as low as 1.48 I like adding BTS to boost the odds to even money.
Arsenal have conceded in both games this season and the change in style is going to take more than 1 window and 2 games to rectify. They look poor at the back and with Mustafi and Sokratis at CB, the inexperienced Guendouzi protecting the back 4. Going forward they will be fine with Lacazette probably coming in, Mkhitaryan and Aubameyang leading the line. Arsenal have already conceded the 2nd highest SOT in the league, although it should be noted that they have played City and Chelsea so far.
The back 4 for West Ham fill me with concern. Zabaleta, Balbuena, Ogbonna and Masuaku, who doesn’t look like a full back at all to me, will not be good enough for the Arsenal forward line. However, Arnautovic had chances at Liverpool and Anderson looks a player, so they should be able to create chances. They created 11 shots and 5 SOT on target vs Bournemouth and had a xG 1.18, but conceded 1.74 (xGA) and away to Liverpool they still had 2 SOT and a further two shots off target in a game they were always 2nd best.
Last season their away xG was 0.93 and the xGA 1.89. After spending £100m they have improved from an attacking sense, but not defensively.
Arsenals home record last season was pretty decent – they only lost against the top two and won every game vs 7th and below. 78.95% of home games went over 2.5 goals and they only failed to score once – Man City. This may sound odd, but they kept CS against the sides that you would expect them too – WBA, Stoke, Huddersfield, Brighton, Watford, Newcastle and Burnley – All pretty blunt away from home. CS against Spurs & Bournemouth were good. But they conceded to Swansea, Saints, West Ham, Palace, Leicester, Everton.
Last season Arsenal had an xG of 2.53 and xGA of 1.12 but interestingly they conceded more SOT than WBA, Newcastle and the same amount as Leicester at home – We wouldn’t be getting odds of as low as 1.62 for BTS if this was the Foxes playing West Ham.
I am confident that Arsenal will score at least 2 goals here so this bet is all about West Ham getting on the score sheet. The Hammers need a performance here even if they lose with a disappointing result last weekend.
Premier League – Sunday 4pm
Newcastle vs Chelsea
Bet: Over 2.25 match goals (2/2.5)
Odds & Bookie: 1.7 with BetVictor
Stake: 1 unit
I am not sure that the bookies have come to realise the way that Chelsea will play this season. Sarri saw his Napoli side last season be involved in games over 2.5 55.26% of the time and so far this season both games have landed in the overs.
He has changed the formation to a 442 which means that he is asking Alonso to operate as a LB, which I am not convinced about, he is much better getting forward. The CB pairing is Luiz, who is better in a 3 and Rudiger, who is better on the bench. Kante is being pushed further forward, Kovacic will be a good addition but will take a little time to adjust to the PL and the front 3 of Hazard, Pedro and Morata won’t be doing much defending. This is a Chelsea side that can definitely be got at. Huddersfield although only record an xG of 0.46 hit the post and where a little unlucky in a few other opportunities, but remember the Terriers are probably the worst side in the league. Arsenal could have scored 4 in the 1st half and registered a match xG of 2.74, with Chelsea at xG 1.74
Newcastle should have scored more than once vs Spurs on the opening day and looking at last season vs top half sides at home their record was P9 W3 D2 L4 F9 A10 over 2.5 3 BTS 4, which I know doesn’t make great reading, but this season they look a little more open. Vs Spurs xG 1.22 and xGA 2.73 and although Cardiff was 0-0 xG 1.73 and xGA 1.4, which leaves them of a total xG of xG1.5 and xGA 2.1.
With the Newcastle home crowd pushing Newcastle on I don’t think they will sit back like we saw them do when they played City last season. Chelsea look good going forward and suspect at the back and with Joselu starting the season well I am confident of Newcastle finding the net. Chelsea will have the ability to score, NUFC have an issue at right back and I am sure that Chelsea will capitalise on this with Hazard expected to come in for his first start. Chelsea went off here last season at 1.62 and they are 1.7 for Sunday. If anything Chelsea have improved whilst Newcastle have gone backwards.
We only need 2 goals to get half our stake back should the game be a little edgy and tight, but given how both sides have played so far this season I don’t think that could be the case.
Premier League – Saturday 3pm
Saints vs Leicester
Bet: Over 2 match goals (2 Goal Line)
Odds & Bookie: 1.75 with BetVictor
Stake: 1.25 unit
The Foxes let me down last week as they failed to score another goal or let one in for the full win. However, I am going to go in again and back them to involved in a match with goals.
Last week there was only 2 goals in their match with Wolves, but that doesn’t tell the story. Wolves hit the woodwork 3 times and ended up with an xGA 1.19. Against Man Utd they dominated possession and ended up with xG 1.58 and xGA 1.51. The Foxes went to Old Trafford and were the better side and although Utd are struggling you can see that the Foxes are a decent side on their day. So far this season their total match xG 2.3 so there is a chance for match goals.
You always feel that Leicester are likely to concede. Last season in their away matches they saw 69% of games end up with over 2.5 goals, they kept just 3 CS and FTS 4 times, with BTS landed in 14/19 games. Have the Foxes brought well enough this summer for these trends to stop? Not for me. They conceded 2 at Utd and were very lucky not to concede at home to Wolves so in my view they will continue to concede.
Saints started the season with a 0-0 draw but the match xG was 2.93, both sides were just too poor on the day to take their chances. So far this season their match xG is 3.5. Saints last season kept only 3 clean sheets at home and although they FTS 7 times these were against the better sides – City, Utd, Liverpool and Burnley (4 of the top 7). For me Saints aren’t that good. Hughes isn’t a great manager, but his remit when coming in was to excite the fans after they were bored with a top half finish, qualification for Europe and a cup final under Puel and then a poor season under Pellegrino, so the players will set up to go at the Foxes and with Ings and a fully fit Austin along with Redmond and Gabbiadini they have the players to cause the Foxes issues.
If we only see 2 goals we get a full refund.