Greetings from my hideaway in Spain. Some tough games in the PL this weekend. The Spurs Liverpool game will be a cracker, but that’s not where my bets will be. However, I am covering one of the games on TV and maybe not in the way you might expect. Some bets here that I recommend taking asap as the odds will definitely move lower.
I am all set to sit back on Saturday and watch the games. Remember I back every single bet that I send out so I want these to win as much as you do. Let’s do this!!
Premier League – Saturday 5:30pm
Watford vs Man Utd
Bet: Watford over 1.5 cards
Odds & Bookie: 1.61 with Bet365
Stake: 1 unit
The evening kick off sees the inform Hornets take on Utd with a defeat for Jose probably meaning the end. I think too much has been made of the poor start by Utd and in my view is now fashionable to dislike Jose, which is odd as the same people were singing his praises a few years ago, but that’s football and fashion for you.
Watford have picked up at least 2 cards in every game they have played this season. Last season in the 19 home games they picked up over 1.5 cards in 14 of these games!
Watford have the 2nd highest amount of cards picked up this season with 10 in 4 games and they have committed the 4th highest number of fouls in the PL. In contrast Utd are the 6th highest most fouled team.
Mike Dean in the ref and in his last 6 games taking charge of Watford he has given them at least 1.5 cards in every game.
Premier League – Saturday 3pm
Bournemouth vs Leicester
Bet: Over 2,2.5 goals (2.25 Goal Line)
Odds & Bookie: 1.7 with BetVictor
Stake: 2 units
Two sides here that love goals at both ends of the pitch.
Let’s start with the Cherries – In the last 21 home games they have seen 14 games go over 2.5 goals, 33% of games go over 3.5 goals, 13/21 games BTS with just 4 CS and 5 FTS with 3 of those 5 against Chelsea, Utd and Liverpool.
Only 3 have seen under 1.5 goals and they have scored 1.5 team goals on 52% of home games since the start of last season.
So far this season they have seen an xG match goals of 3.2 and last season they had an actual match goal return of 2.94 per home match.
King and Wilson look in good form with the latter a little unlucky not to receive an international call up.
The Foxes since the start of last season have kept just 3 CS and 4 FTS in 21 away games. 15/21 games have seen over 2.5 and 19/21 have seen over 1.5 goals. The only two games have been 0-0’s vs Chelsea and Bournemouth but in both these games the expected goals was 1.98 and 1.99. The best news is that 76% of their away goals saw BTS.
In 43% of away games they have scored 1.5 team goals or more and last season saw their total match goals in away games at 3.63
So far this season they have seen an away match xG of 2.105 and an actual of 3 per away games.
Vardy is back for the Foxes and with the movement of Wilson and King vs Morgan I am confident that we should see some goals here. If you apply the two teams home and away stats you will see that over 42 games, 29 games have seen over 2.5, which is 69%, which would give you odds of 1.45, we can back the over 2.25 at 1.7 which is value in my opinion. If we look at the over 1.5 match goals this has landed in 88% of games, which is odds of 1.14.
Premier League – Saturday 3pm
Huddersfield vs Palace
Bet: Palace DNB or 0.0AH
Odds & Bookie: 1.73 at 188 Bet or BetVictor
Stake: 1 unit
Two sides that have started poorly, but for me Huddersfield are a worse side than Palace. The loss to Liverpool was no disgrace, but there will be concern with 3 defeats on the spin with the latter two defeats to Watford and Saints. They were outplayed by Saints and were lucky to lose by just 2 goals in the end. However, they are a better side than they are currently showing and I am hoping that Zaha is fit for this and reports are he will start here.
Palace haven’t lost to a bottom half team away from home under Roy and I cant see that changing, whereas Huddersfield have only won 6 games at home in the top flight and have won just 3 of their last 24 games and 1 in their last 14. Its not great for the home side. So far this season their expected points sees them sit bottom.
Huddersfield have only had 9 SOT all season whilst conceding 23, Palace have had 20 SOT so far this season. At home the Terriers have had the fewest shots at goal and also the fewest SOT. Defensively they aren’t too bad, but a draw gets us our money back here. Away from home Palace have had more SOT than Liverpool and the same number as Spurs. Its not their play that’s costing them, its their poor finishing. However, I don’t see this being an issue all season. Benteke is getting chances and I am sure that at some point one will fly in off his arse and he will score a few.
Max Meyer will have had longer with his team mates to settle, a fit Zaha, Townsend and Ayew has more attacking skill than what Huddersfield can offer.
Palace went off at 2.88 here last season and given how both teams have started and that we can get 2.4 on a Palace win seems about right to me. Huddersfield look a worst team than last season and havent really improved and Palace are a top half team for me. With the draw getting us a 100% refund I am confident that this wont lose. A fit Zaha will see the odds drop for me.