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Quick turnaround for the championship and here are my best bets for the week ahead. Some great prices, but the championship is always a tough league to predict. Hopefully these three see us ok.

Match: Aston Villa vs Rotherham

Championship – 7:45pm Tuesday

Bet: Villa win & O1.5 match goals

Odds & Bookie: 1.83 with Coral

Stake: 1 unit

Time for Villa to up their game.

Undefeated at home but only 1 win. They have brought in some quality players on loan in Abraham and Bolaise. With these type of loans comes expectancy and the fans will be demanding a performance and win. They probably have the best time to do it, Rotherham at home.

The Millers have played 3 lost 3 away, conceded 8 scoring just once – although they have faced Brentford, Leeds and Wigan. They did lose those 3 games by an average xG of 1.84 vs 0.84

Rotherham have conceded the 3rd most shots and the highest SOT in the league. It’s going to be difficult keeping a clean sheet for them.

Villa have lost the xG in 2 of their 3 home games but have also maintained an xG of over 1.

I’m confident that with the quality of the Villa players, home crowd, Bruce under a little bit of pressure should see the players click.

Match: Ipswich vs Brentford

Championship – 7:45pm Tuesday

Bet: Brentford to score over 1.5 goals

Odds & Bookie: 1.95 at Royal Panda

Stake: 1 unit

Amazing odds. Let’s start with the basics.

Ipswich haven’t kept a CS all season and have played the likes of Rotherham, Hull and Norwich all who sit below mid table. They have conceded 1.5 or more in 4/7 games this season.

Brentford have scored in 6/7 games this season. The game they failed to win they won xG. Won the shot count 8-2 and SOT count 3-1.

They have scored 1.5 in 5/7 games this season. Only 3 sides have had more attempts at goal and no side has had more SOT than the Bees. They have an away xG of 1.12, so will score at least once.

Ipswich to be fair to them have decent defensive shot data with the 2nd lowest shots conceded and the fewest SOT conceded – hence the odds. They have a xGA of 1.13

But their best CB is out suspended, the fans are starting to get nervous with them bottom of the table after hounding out McCarthy last term. The team will be nervous, lack confidence and an early Bees goal will make the starting Ipswich 11 even more on edge.

Ipswich have brought a large proportion of L1 and L2 players and if you buy too many of them, you become just that, a L1 club.

The back 4 will be made up of Spence, released from MK Dons 18 mths ago or Donacien, who was playing L2 last year. Chambers who is very average, Pennington on loan from Everton and Knudsen at LB, who is decent at this level. Midfield will be Downes, last season at Luton, Nolan, last season at Shrewsbury, Graham, who has made just 6 competitive starts in 3 seasons, Edwards, Peterborough L1 last season and the ageing Skuse. It’s just a squad that isn’t full of experience. The Bees will just pass the ball around them and far too much quality and experience for a naive Ipswich side.

Match: Middlesbrough vs Bolton

Championship – 7:45pm Tuesday

Bet: Boro win & U3.5 match goals

Odds & Bookie: 2.05 with Sporting Bet

Stake: 1 unit

We got burnt at the weekend with Boro losing to Norwich but I’m going on again.

Boro haven’t conceded a home goal yet this season with a home xGA of 0.63. They average just 3.33 SOT conceded per home game.

Offensively Boro are clinical with just an average of 3.35 SOT from an average of 13 shots at goal but an xG of 1.47

Bolton are seeing an xG of 0.84 per game even though they are taking a high number of shots.

They are averaging an expected match goals of 1.6 with Boro recording 2.11. Compared to the actual goals seen it’s 2.61 in Bolton games and just 1.66 for Boro match goals.

Over the last 23 away games only 6 went over 3.5 matches and last season vs top 6 away only the away game to Wolves went over 3.5 goals.

Pulis with Boro, 15 home games played with just 2 over 3.5 and when at WBA in PL in just 15 of the last 50 home games went over 3.5 – just 30% against quality opposition.

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