Morning all, sorry for posting this late, but I’ve been keen to see if we had an positive odd movement on a few tips and I’m pleased to say we have! We have been in cracking form since the PL started so let’s try and continue this weekend.
Premier League – Saturday 3pm
Everton vs Huddersfield
Bet: Everton -0.75AH
Odds & Bookie: 1.71 with BetVictor
Stake: 1.75 units
Premier League – Saturday 3pm
West Ham vs Wolves
Bet: Both teams to score
Odds & Bookie: 1.71 with 10Bet
Stake: 1 unit
Premier League – Saturday 3pm
Palace vs Saints
Bet: Over 2, 2.5 Goal Line (2.25)
Odds & Bookie: 1.925 with BetVictor
Stake: 1 unit
Bet 1 rationale: So I am finally ready to back the Toffees, but only because Huddersfield are so poor but I not convinced that even Everton shaky defence can keep them out.
Last season Everton had a decent home record against the sides that finished below them with P12 W10 D2 scoring 1.5+ in 8 of these games. In fact over the last two season Everton have P20 W16 D4 against bottom half sides. 13 of these games they scored 1.5+ and 2.5+ in 40%. They have kept CS in just 45%, more of this later…
Huddersfield in their one season in the PL when facing top half sides away they have P10, W0 L7. Their 3 draws v Burnley and then randomly in their last two away games last season vs City and Chelsea which kept them up. Even in the Championship they only won 4 away games vs top half sides.
Looking at their shot data its pretty grim reading. They have had the fewest shots at goal in the league with just 16 in 3 games and 3 shots on target, meaning that just 19% of attempts on goal are on target, only Cardiff have a worst ratio. Defensively they are just as bad. They have conceded the most shots at goal and then 3rd highest SOT.
Everton have only had the 6th lowest amount of shots on goal, yet 50% of them have been on target, only Palace can boost better stats than that. 40% of the toffee shots on target result in a goal and when Huddersfield are conceding on average 7.33 SOT per game, you have to fancy the home side to score.
Everton have conceded a lot of shots yet only 30% have been on target, which is one of the better results on the league. They haven’t kept a CS this season and are without Keane, Jagielka and Muir this weekend which means that Holgate may partner Zouma at the back.
Overall Everton have a shot ratio of 41% and Huddersfield just 21%. (shot ratio is one teams number of shots in a game over the total shots in that game)
Huddersfield lost the xG to Cardiff at the weekend and were lucky not to lose the game with Cardiff missing a few very good chances. 0.24 – 1.06. Even with Evertons defence concerns and inability to keep goals out I believe they will have too much for Huddersfield who have had just 3 SOT.
Everton have only won the xG once this season and that was at home to Saints 2.04 to 1.77 and lost the xG to Bournemouth last weekend 2.59 – 0.54.
All in all Everton don’t really have the stats to back up this game, but their home record is so good, Huddersfield are so blunt in front of goal I can see the Toffees nicking this game.
Bet 2 rationale: West Ham have not had the best starts to the season and sit bottom of the league. Losing at Anfield is no reason for concern, but the defeats to Bournemouth at home after being 1-0 up and then losing 3-1 to Arsenal has left them pointless. I didn’t think they played too badly at the Emirates and maybe should have scored more than the once they did. One thing is for sure that they need to avoid defeat on Saturday. There was some positive signs midweek when they played Wimbledon in the League Cup, yet still conceded.
I think the players they have brought in look good attacking player and they appear to be settling down and going forward they look good. Their xG has been 0.4 (vs Liverpool) 1.11 vs Bournemouth and 1.38 (vs Arsenal) so creating chances isn’t an issue. Bournemouth have managed just two more SOT than the Hammers (12) yet have scored 8 goals whereas they have scored just twice, so I am hopeful they will improve. Snodgrass has looked good, Arnautovic is reportedly fit, Antonio is always a threat and there is Perez, Hernandez and Yarmolenko who are all very capable of scoring.
Defensively they have the 2nd worst xGA, have conceded the 2nd highest SOT and 39% of SOT result in goals. Last season they only failed to score 4 times at home but kept 7 CS, although 4 of these were to sides that finished 14th and below. Wolves will finish above that this season.
Wolves have started the season well. They were the better side vs Everton in a 2-2 draw. Were again the better side in a 2-0 defeat to Leciester, even though they won the xG 1.08 vs 0.20. Hitting the woodwork 3 times. In their last game they managed an xG of 1.24, to put these in context City only had an xGA of 1.24 four times last season! Don’t be fooled by their 14th position their xPTS has them 7th, whilst West Ham sit 19th. In the Championship they only FTS on 5 occasions and one of those was after they had won the league. Their xG was 1.2 and xGA was 1 in the championship.
The 1-1 draw with City will give them confidence but they were a little lucky, City hit the woodwork twice and City weren’t really at it. Everton scored their 2nd goal when they had 10 men so this is definitely a side that can be got at and looks likely to concede.
Bet 3 rationale: I am back to get involved with Saints again and anyone that read my preview of their game last weekend will know how I feel about this side and manager. They simply aren’t very good.
Saints only won 3 away games last season and although they FTS 7 (Utd, Liverpool and Chelsea) times and kept just 5 CS (Swansea & Huddersfield) When you remove the sides in brackets it much better reading. They did beat Palace 1-0 at Selhurst last season, although the xG was 2.03 to 1.11 in favour of Palace. Last season they did have an xG away match record of 2.41 and actual was 2.47 –so plenty of reason to get excited about the bet. Last season 68% of their away games saw over 1.5 goals.
This season they have a fully fit Charlie Austin and have brought in Danny Ings, both players have the ability to score. Ings currently has an xG of 0.84 per 90 mins played.
This season they have started the season with expected match goals of 2.31 and xG of 1. Only 5 sides have had more shots than Saints this season so far with 47 and 40% of these have been on target. I think people are of a mind-set that Saints are just dull and boring, yet under Hughes they are trying to attack and create. At Everton they ended the game with an xG of 1.77 in a game that ended 2-1, similar to their result against Leicester. Although their opening game was a 0-0 draw with Burnley they match xG was 2.17. Interestingly Saints have had the 2nd highest shots within the 6 yard box in the PL with 5 in 3 games – My model suggests that over the last 6 years 44% of attempts within the 6 yard box result in goals – Saints should nick a goal here.
Palace last season had the 7th highest amount of shots in their games and the 5th highest amount of shots within in the box – not bad for a side that struggled so badly early on. They saw 58% of their home games land BTS, 79% had 1.5+ match goals and 63% saw over 2.5 goals. In their 38 matches they saw 100 goals – an average of 2.63 with an expected match goals of 2.9. They finished with the 13th best home record but their xPTS has them 7th. So far this season their shot data isn’t quite as impressive but that probably to do with one of their games was vs Liverpool who look very good defensively. I have Palace expected match goals this season at 2.37
Under Roy Palace have only failed to score on 3 occasions. Zaha was missing on two of the games and in the other match they missed a penalty.