Morning. As you know I like to look for early value and sometimes my bets can be posted almost a week in advance of kick off. Here is a bet I like for opening day of the Championship next weekend.
Match: Reading v Derby Friday 3rd August
Bet: Derby draw no bet
Odds and Bookie: 1.94 Marathon, 1.91 Paddy and Betfair
Stake: 1 unit
I have already touched on Derby in a previous tip but they have now signed Jack Marriott from Peterborough. Marriott scored 27 goals in 44 games last season, which is a decent record at any level of football. This is alongside Mount, who last season was on loan to Vitesse, where he played 32 games, scoring 14 with 9 assists. He looks the real deal. Harry Wilson from Liverpool and Josefzoon from Brentford. They are still trying to buy Waghorn from Ipswich, who was directly involved in more championship goals than any other player last season.
Their squad looks good with players like Huddlestone, Vydra, Ledley, Curtis Davies with a mix of younger players like Tom Lawrence.
Lampards first game is on the TV and he will want to make the right first impression.
From the turn of the new year Reading have P21 W3 L7 F18 A37 – Only Sunderland had a worst record in the Championship in 2018 than the Royals.
They have tried to freshen things up with 9 players out and 6 players in. Marc McNulty from Coventry was an excellent signing but he did take time to settle into the season last year, but the rest seem to be average players with the likes of Mayler from Hull, O’Shea from Sunderland and the rest untested players at this level.
I am not sure Clement knows his best formation or line up, which with less than 10 days to the big kick off is an issue. Whist we shouldn’t look to closely at last seasons stats, Reading had the 2nd fewest SOT and conceded the 3rd highest SOT in the league! They conceded 221 SOT in 46 games and 32% of these resulted in a goal conceded – Derby had the best SOT / Goal ration in the league with 38.67% of SOT resulting in a goal!
Reading did manage to win 5 games at home last season – 3 of them finished no higher than 17th. The other two was Villa back in early August and then Preston. In the Preston game they were incredibly lucky losing the shot count 17 vs 5 and scored with their only SOT.
I think they will really struggle this season and wouldn’t be surprised to see them get relegated.