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Afternoon guys, following on from my two early selections posted on Wednesday, here are my Premier League selections for tomorrow and Sunday, Good luck and have a great weekend!

English Premier League

Saturday 3pm
Match: West Ham vs Bournemouth
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Odds & Bookie: 1.88 with Marathon
Stake: 1 unit

Saturday 3pm
Match: Leicester vs Wolves
Bet: Over 2.25 goals
Odds & Bookie: 1.85 with BetVictor
Stake: 1.25 unit

Sunday 4pm
Match: Brighton vs Man Utd
Bet: Brighton +1AH
Odds & Bookie: 1.60 with BetVictor
Stake: 1 unit

West Ham vs Bournemouth

Two very attacking teams here and I think it should be an entertaining game. West Ham were taken apart by Liverpool at the weekend but still had a few chances in the 1st half to get on the score sheet. They should create more chances against a defensively poor Bournemouth side.

  • West Ham only kept two clean sheets at home against sides that finished above them (12th and above) and this was against Chelsea and Arsenal, so both derbies.
  • The only failed to score (FTS) in 4 games at home last season – Man Utd, Arsenal, Burnley and Brighton – so I fully expect them to score especially with the players that they have signed over the summer and previously with the club.
  • Hard to read too much into xG after one game but they come away from the Liverpool defeat with an xG 0.4 and xGA 3.9. Last season they ended up with a match xG of 2.18
  • Last season 15/19 had over 1.5 match goals and 9/19 over 2.5
  • Against middle tier sides 5/6 games saw BTS and 3/6 over 2.5
  • Bournemouth started the season well with a 2-0 win over Cardiff. There should have been more goals in this game given there was a missed penalty and Cardiff missed a complete sitter. They ended the match with expected goals of xG 2.4 and xGA 1.6 so an expected match goals of 4.
  • Last season their away form was good with 2.70 match xG and had the 8th best away xPTS – They should come and give West Ham a good game.
  • They have some good attacking players with Wilson looking fully fit, King, Fraser and Brooks all looking for goals.
  • Last season they kept just 3 CS but failed to score in 7 of their 19 games, although 5 of these 7 was against the top 6.
  • However, 12/19 going over 2.5 goals. When playing sides that finished below them they saw 6/8 BTS and 5/8 over 2.5 goals.

BTS looks a great shout, but at 1.7 I feel there is better value of over 2.5 goals at 1.88.

Leicester vs Wolves

  • The Foxes 21/38 matches over 2.5 goals & BTS in 24/38
  • Last season at home 10/19 (53%) & 8/19 Over 2.5 goals
  • FTS in 4/19 – Man City, Palace, Saints and West Ham
  • 6 clean sheets – Burnley, Everton, Watford, Brighton, Huddersfield, Saints
  • Average match goals 2.47 and xG 2.48
  • Highest scorers outside top 6 last season
  • First game were unlucky to lose to Man Utd, won the xG 1.6-1.5 and out shot them 13-8
  • Obviously in the championship last season but only FTS in 4/23 – One of these was after they had gain promotion
  • Won only 3 away games vs Top 10 away in championship, conceding in 7 of these 10 and only FTS in 3/10
  • Over 2.5 goals in 48% of away games and BTS 8/23 – But clearly Leicester with likes of Vardy, Gray, Albrighton, Ghezzal etc a step up in level of opposition
  • Vs Everton they came away with an xG 1 and xGA of 0.9 and match xG 1.9
  • Won the shot counts vs Everton 11-6 but they still conceded against 10 men.

We will get half our stake back if there is only two goals here, but 3 or more and we get a full payout.

Brighton vs Man Utd

Not the greatest odds and I have changed from a +0.75AH to a +1AH as Brighton were poor last weekend. However, at home there are a different side.

  • Brighton had the 8th best home record in the PL last season – Chelsea got just 8 points more at home
  • They lost just 4 home games – Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Leicester (Brighton missed a pen at 0-0). Losing to City and Liverpool no disgrace.
  • xPTS last season also had Brighton as the 8th best home team, which shows they deserved their finishing position
  • Utd had the 3rd best away record last season but on xPTS Utd come 5th with 24.47 pts, Palace 8th with 23.89 pts – They were fractionally better than Arsenal (24.27), Leicester (24.09) and Palace. Yet last season the odds for these sides to win at Brighton were:
    Ø Arsenal – 1.96
    Ø Palace – 3.10
    Ø Leicester – 2.70
  • None of these sides won here last season. Utd look far too short on Sunday to win the match. There has been an overreaction to Brighton’s poor showing last weekend.
  • Utd lost here last season and went off at odds of 1.86 yet on Sunday they are 1.73. Have Utd got better over the summer, have Brighton got worse? Not for me. Brighton have brought well over the summer.
  • There is something not quite right in the Utd camp. Jose has been moaning all summer about the lack of signings. Pogba has come out and basically said he isn’t happy. The fans are losing patience with the dull boring tactics
  • They were poor in the opening game against Leicester. They lost the xG 1.6 to 1.5. They lost the shot count 13-8, Utd has less possession (when did the Foxes even dominate possession, especially at Old Trafford)
  • Last season their expected goals conceded had them conceding a further 8.37 goals and scoring 4.99 fewer, its no wonder the xPTS was much lower at 9.53. Everything points to Utd overachieving away from home last season.
  • Utd failed to beat Leicester, Newcastle, West Ham, Brighton, Huddersfield and Stoke away last season. They beat WBA, Saints, Palace & Burnley all by exactly 1 goal. Sides finishing 9th and below – Utd covered the handicap just 3 times.
  • Whilst Brighton did get beaten easily by Liverpool and City, Utd don’t have the pace and ability to break like those two sides do. Utd will play a style that will suit Brighton.

If Utd do win, but only by 1 goal we will get our stake refunded. A draw or a Brighton win will see us getting paid out.

Good luck,

James.

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