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You’ve received his Premier League tips for the weekend, now here are James’ Football League best bets for the weekend. Good luck if you get on and let’s hope for plenty of profit!

League 2 – Saturday 3pm
Oldham vs Colchester
Bet: Colchester +0.25AH (0, +0.5AH)
Odds & Bookie: 1.71 at BetVictor

Stake: 1 unit

I am not convinced by Oldham, I thought they would struggle this season and have been a little surprised by their league standings – However, on digging a little further I have noticed a few things. My rankings have Oldham have the 4 worst home side in the division. Their home xG at 1.15 is the worst in the division and their xG ratio is 43.8% – again the worst in the division. xG ratio is the expected goals score by a team by the total expected goals in the match.

The Latics have the 20th xGA in the league with 1.48 conceded, although their actual is a tad higher at 1.25 and sits them 15th. Its not surprise to see the SOT conceded is 4 per match and again the 16th worst in the division. I am just not sure they deserve to be favourites for this match.

They have beaten Macclesfield and Crawley at home this season – They lost the xG in the Crawley and Macclesfield have been poor away from home. They have a few injuries with Fane, Dummigan (RB) and experience Coke all out and Ishmael Miller not fully fit.

Colchester have been excellent this season. xG ratio they sit at the top of the tree for away matches. This is mainly due to their excellent defence .xGA is 0.7, the best in the league, their actual goals conceded is 0.75 per match, again the best in the league. Just 2.5 SOT conceded per match, 2nd best in the league. Going forward they aren’t great but do have an xG of 1.3 per match and an actual of 1.25 (12th best)

Only lost once all season, in a shock defeat to Northampton, but away from home their form and performances have been good. They have only lost the xG once in their 4 away games. They have no injury worries and if anything they have a selection dilemma in which players to start.

Don’t expect a game of plenty of goals, but a draw gets us some profit.

League 2 – Saturday 3pm
Crewe vs Port Vale
Bet: Crewe 0.0AH
Odds & Bookie: 1.95 at Unibet or 888 Sport

Stake: 1 unit

A game that I was a little surprised to see the odds available.

Let’s quickly look at the basics.

Crewe at home P3 7 pts, 9 goals scored, 0 conceded.

Vale away P4, 1 point, 2 goals scored and 6 conceded.

The 2 that Vale have scored is the joint lowest in the division. Vale have an xG of 1.0 per match (20th) and an xGA of 1.68 (18th) they have manage 3.25 SOT per game (17th) and concede 4.74 SOT (11th) all in all not the best set of data. Their away xG ratio is just 37%.

Crewe look in decent form this season at home. They have played a mixture of sides so far this season with wins over Macclesfield and Morecambe, but held MK Dons to a 0-0. A xG of 1.67 and xGA of 1.13 their expected goals are ok. They have generated more SOT than any other L2 team at home this season with 6.33, but have conceded 4.67 which is the 19th best. However, given Vale poor goal scoring away record I reckon Crewe will sneak this.

This is a bit of a local derby so I am expecting a low scoring dull affair.

A full refund if the game is a draw.

League 2 – Saturday 3pm
Bury vs Carlisle
Bet: Bury win
Odds & Bookie: 1.8 at Marathon & Boyles

Stake: 1 unit

Bury the in form home side in the league and its no surprise to see them sit at the top of my home rankings.

Quick summary.

1.88 xG 3rd best in league

72.8% xG ratio – best in the league

0.7 xGA – Best in league

0.75 actual goals conceded – 2nd best

5.25 SOT – 6th best

Concede 2.75 SOT – 2nd best

Lets compare this to Carlisle away record who sit 17th in my rankings:

xG 0.68 – 24th

xg Shot ratio – 24th

2.4 xGA – 24th

SOT for – 3.5 – 12th

SOT conceded 4.75 – 12th

The only metrics keeping this side off the bottom of the ranking is the they have have a few shots and don’t concede that many, although 4.75 per game is nothing to get excited about.

Bury have a number of players coming back from injury whilst Carlisle have their 1st choice keeper out injured.

League 1 – Saturday 3pm
Sunderland vs Rochdale
Bet: Over 2.5 match goals
Odds & Bookie: 1.78 at BetVictor

Stake: 1 unit

Sunderland are seeing xG of 1.68 at home this season and an xGA of 1.2. They have scored in every game this season, home and away and kept just 1 CS in their 8 games! On average they are scoring 1.75 goals per home game and their actual match goals at home is 2.5. Rochdale xG away of 1.5 and xGA of 1.7 but with an actual of 2 goals scored per away game and 1.5 conceded – an average match goal of 3.5.

Away from home Rochdale have kept 1 CS and scored in every game. They have seen 3 of 4 away games go over 2.5 and BTS, whilst Sunderland have seen 2/4 over 2.5 and3 of 4 BTS. The implied probability looking at those over results (although based on a small sample) is 62.5% which should be odds of 1.6.

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