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Hi guys,

I have run out of time this week so my Football League tips will be brief, but the research has been complete. I’ll try to add stats where possible to help confirm my selections but we have 4 selections.

League One – Saturday 3pm
Portsmouth vs Plymouth
Bet: Pompey win
Odds & Bookie: 1.75 with Skybet
Stake: 1 units

Pompey who are 3rd, having dropped just 2 points from opening 15 points available take on Plymouth who sit rock bottom, with just 2 points.

Not a game that has impressive shot data although Pompey only concerned 3 SOT in 2 home games, the best in the league.

My model has Pompey home xG at 1.65 and xGA at just 0.7. Given the few shots they concede that’s hardly a surprise. With Pitman and Hawkins they will take chances if presented

Plymouth have conceded 3 and my model gives them a total away xGA of 4.3, so have been fortunate not to concede more. They have not won a game yet, even though they have play 3 “middle 3rd sides”

I can see Pompey comfortable 2-0

Championship – Saturday 3pm
Wigan vs Rotherham
Bet: Wigan -0.75AH
Odds & Bookie: 1.72 with Marathon Bet
Stake: 1 units

Wigan have only lost 2 home league games in 2018. They come in this game with plenty of confidence and if you look at expected position on games played so far I have Wigan in 2nd and Rotherham 22nd

Wigan home xG is 1.3 with an home xGA of 0.68.

Only 4 sides had more attempts and SOT than Wigan so far this season. Whereas Rotherham have conceded 3 most attempts and 2 highest SOT. Rotherham have also conceded the 2nd highest amount of attempts on goal from inside the 6 yard box in away games. I have their away xGA at 2.07

Wigan will create and take chances against a defensively poor Rotherham side.

League 1 – Saturday 3pm
Shrewsbury vs Bristol Rovers
Bet: 2 / 2.5 Goal Line (2.25)
Odds & Bookie: 1.727 with BetVictor
Stake: 1 units

Shrews have an expected home match goals of 3.30 and Bristol Rovers 2.75.

Rovers have seen 6 goals in their 2 away games and whilst there has only been 1 goal in the Shrews home match they are producing good shot data. An average of 14 shots per game, although just an average of 4 SOT per game.

Bristol Rovers have the 2nd highest attempts on goal in the league and the 3rd highest SOT. I have their away xG at 2 per game. Last season their games average 2.7 goals per game and away games saw 48% go over 2.5 but they only kept 5 CS.

I feel that Shrews have been playing ok but are being a little unlucky, they should get a goal here and Rovers look more than capable of scoring with that shot data.

League 1 – Saturday 3pm
Walsall vs Blackpool
Bet: Both teams to score
Odds & Bookie: 1.8 with William Hill
Stake: 1 units

Walsall at home have an xG of 1.8 and xGA of 1.9 and Blackpool away xG 1.1 and xGA 1.85 – goals appear to be on the agenda here.

Only 4 sides have registered more SOT than Blackpool and only 1 side conceded more attempts on goal than Walsall.

Of the 10 games played between them this season 8 have seen over 2.5 goals. Walsall seen 100% of home games BTS land and Rovers 100% of away games BTS. Walsall have seen all 5 games BTS and Rovers 4/5.

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