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James at Betting Desk has just sent over his Football League picks for the weekend. His Premier League picks were published yesterday so here’s the rest of his selections from England. Good luck!

Championship – Saturday 3pm
Norwich vs Middlesbrough
Bet: Boro DNB / 0.0AH
Odds & Bookie: 1.81 with BetVictor
Stake: 1 unit

Farke out has now taken over from Farke life and you feel any defeat will result in the manager going. Can a side play under than pressure?

Norwich are struggling at home, no side has conceded more goals at home than City and therefore its hardly surprising to see them conceded more SOT than just 3 other sides in the league. I watched the game vs Ipswich last time out and they were lucky to come away with a point against a side that looks likely to struggle to stay in the division. They have played Leeds and WBA at home and conceded 7. They did beat Preston but they were a little lucky in that game with the away side smashing the bar with the game at 0-0.

My model has them having an xG of 1.01 but with a xGA of 0.7, which given they have conceded 7 at home would suggest they have been a little unlucky. Its just the quality of their side and how Farke sets them up which is a concern.

Boro since drawing with Millwall 2-2 in the opening game of the season havent conceded a goal. That’s makes then best away defence in the division, they concede have average of just 3 SOT per game, the 2nd best. This is a Pulis team now! They don’t create that many changes but they have quality in their side which I believe will overcome Norwich. Braithwaite has 3 goals in 5 games for the visitors and with set pieces I think they will have too much quality.

A draw here sees us get a full refund.

League 2 – Saturday 3pm
Swindon vs Bury
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Odds & Bookie: 1.85 with William Hill
Stake: 1 unit

Swindon have an xG of 1.97 and a match expected goals of 2.73, with their actual goals showing a return of 2.33 per home game and 4 match goals. On top of that they are conceding an average of 1,67 goals per home game!

The 2nd highest SOT taken and only 8 sides have conceded more SOT. They have 0 CS and have scored in every home game so far this season. In fact from their 7 games this season they have 1 CS and have scored in every game.

Doughty is bang in form with 5 goals already so far this season.

Bury have an expected and actual match away goals of 3 per game. Only 2 sides register more SOT in away games than Bury but only 5 sides concede more SOT. This looks to be a game where Bury will attack and allow Swindon to have space. Away from home they have conceded in every game and failed to score in just 1 game. In their 7 games this season they have only failed to score in just 1 of their games this season.

Jointly BTS have landed in 5/6 games this season and over 2.5 match goals in 4/6 games (66.7%) – That’s equates to odds of 1.49, yet we are seeing 1.85 with Wills. Looks a decent shout to me.

Championship – Saturday 3pm
Bristol City vs Sheff Utd
Bet: Over 2,2.5 goals (2.25 GL)
Odds & Bookie: 1.7 with BetVictor
Stake: 1 unit

Two sides in form with both of them sitting in the top 6. Combined the two sides have been involved in games with a total of 37 goals which is an average of 3.08 per game.

City have seen BTS in 67% of their home games but just 33% over 2.5 goals, but no CS at home and only failed to score once this season from 6 games

The Blades have only landed BTS in 33% so far this season but 67% over 2.5 goals. More importantly they have just 1 CS and 1 FTS in 6 games this season. Only 1 side has conceded more shots in away games than Utd, last season they kept just 2 CS away from home.

Last season 27/46 matches featuring these sides went over 2.5 goals – 58%. This should give us odds of 1.72 for over 2.5 yet we can get over 2.25 for almost the same price.

League 2 – Saturday 3pm
Crawley vs Morecambe
Bet: Crawley 0,-0.5 (-0.25AH)
Odds & Bookie: 1.71 with BetVictor
Stake: 0.5 unit

More about Morecambe than Crawley here hence the 0.5 units.

Morecambe sit bottom of my rankings for away performances this season and sit within the bottom for almost every shot metric.

xG – 0.8 – 23rd

xGA – 2 – 18th

Actual goals – 0.67 per game – 22nd

Actual goals conceded 3.33 – 23rd

SOT taken – 3 per game – 15th

SOT conceded 6.33 – 24th

0 CS and 2 FTS in their away games.

Crawley have a xG of 1.97 so should have no issue with scoring a few past this side.

Crawley had a great result last week beating Lincoln 1-0 away from home after losing their manager. They have made a rather strange appointment in replacing Kewell, but with his first home game I would be surprised to see them fail to beat a very poor Morecambe side.

League 2 – Saturday 3pm
Macclesfield vs Lincoln
Bet: Lincoln 0,-0.5 (-0.25AH)
Odds & Bookie: 1.75 with MarathonBet
Stake: 0.5 unit

My rankings make this 21st home side vs the 8th away best away side, yet we can get 1.75 on the -0.25AH, knowing that a draw would see us getting half our stake back.

Lincoln lost last week at home and they will be desperate to bounce back and a trip to Macclesfield should do the trick.

Lincoln don’t create too many chances but the ones that they do they have the quality to score. 1.03xG vs 1.67 actual goals suggests that they are finding the net with more difficult chances, but its their defensive performances in away games which makes me want to take this bet.

1.33 xGA but 0.33 goals conceded – the 3rd best in the league. Just 4 SOT conceded per away game, 7th best.

Whereas Macclesfield at home struggle to score goals. An xG of 1.83 but goals 0.67 – 21st in the league, xGA 1.5 – 20th, goals conceded leaves them 16th, just 3.67 SOT taken – 19th in the league and 5.33 SOT conceded 24th.

Given that Lincoln are decent at the back and the home side manage just 3.67 SOT per home game I cant see too many issues for Lincoln. With the home side giving up so many chances and the quality of Lincolns strikers I can see them bagging a few goals here.

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