Formula One is considered the pinnacle of motorsport, especially for those residing outside of North America, and there’s nothing quite like the atmosphere of race day at Silverstone, the Circuit de Monaco, Monza et al. There’s certainly a lot of money in it for the drivers and, with the right Formula One betting strategy, there can be a lot of money in it for you too.
With help of our guide, even beginners can send their bankrolls into top gear.
Why Bet On F1?
There’s no denying that Formula One is a marmite sport with most people either being fanatical about 21 races or having virtually no interest whatsoever. While fans of the sport can certainly crank up the excitement by placing a wager, the truth is that it doesn’t really matter whether you’re going to watch the event or not; the opportunity to win big remains.
The beauty of most sport is that all competitors start any given event on a level playing field, and it’s not uncommon to see major upsets in football, tennis, and a host of other sports. In motorsport, however, particularly the F1, technology provides a major advantage. This might be a disappointing factor for those wanting the unexpected drama of sport but it can be truly significant for those placing a bet.
Essentially, there is a science behind F1 and there can be a science behind your Formula One betting strategies too. Conducting the necessary research is key.
Three Crucial Stats To Direct Your Betting Strategies
When betting on F1, it’s important to read the analysis of the most reputable experts, especially if you’re not a major fan of the sport. After all, any information you can gain gives you an edge over the bookmaker.
You can pick up some valuable information from various sites. Our favourites are;
In reality, though, there are three main aspects to focus on.
#1. The Best Drivers Win
Whatever way you look at it, the best drivers get the best cars. Even with the rule changes in recent seasons, the eight championships since 2010 have been split between two constructors (Red Bull and Mercedes) and three drivers (Nico Rosberg, Sebastian Vettel, and Lewis Hamilton).
Perhaps more tellingly, that trend over the course of a season translates to individual races too. Since the start of the 2014 campaign, only six drivers have tasted the sweet success of a Grand Prix victory. Given that Rosberg is retired, that statistically limits the number of drivers you might consider betting on.
In recent times, Hamilton and Vettel have been the dominant pair. With all due respect to the lesser drivers at Sauber or Toro Rosso, speculative bets on those names to actually win a GP are virtually a waste of money. Having said that, you consider other markets.
#2. The Pole Position To Race Winner Ratio
Before a Sunday’s race event, F1 drivers complete practice on the Friday and qualifying on the Saturday. While there is a link between practice and race day, it’s the link between grid position and final standings. As a general rule of thumb, pole position drivers win around 50% of all GPs.
However, serious bettors may wish to look at the stats for individual courses. The Italian GP at Monza, for example, has seen the pole position holder win the main race in seven of the last eight years (2010-17) while the Monaco GP boasted just four in that same period.
Either way, if a pole position holder (on the list of drivers actually capable of winning) is offered at odds of over Evens, that is statistically a bet worth taking.
#3. The Weather Impacts Everything
The climate conditions can impact most sports that take place outside but this is even more apparent in F1. Wet weather makes the conditions far more difficult, which will often lend itself to aid the more experienced drivers. This can be a great opportunity to back veterans to finish in the top 6/8/ or 10 places.
Checking the weather forecasts can be very useful indeed, not least when you combine this with research into the tyre characteristics of each team and car. The impacts that the technical issues can have on any given race weekend are, frankly, impossible to ignore.
On a separate note, it’s worth noting that poor conditions increase the threat of errors. Consequently, backing a heavy favourite might be a risky tactic.
Formula One betting strategies
The key to success on Formula One betting strategies is to keep things simple. Here are three ideas that can be utilised to achieve great things.
Strategy 1: Back The Pole Position Holder
If you wait until after qualifying to place your bets, it is very likely that the odds on backing the pole position holder will be relatively low. However, depending on the track, the statistical odds of winning could be as high as 80%. If you’re getting odds of ½ on that type of bet, you’d be a fool not to take it.
Given that there’s a full day between qualifying and the race, there’s plenty of time to do your research. Check the pole position to race winner record at the track while also looking at the driver’s record, and you should discover whether there is value to be had by the odds being offered.
With the right discipline, long-term profits are assured.
Strategy 2: Back Hamilton Or Vettel
Over the past couple of years, the dominant duo have scooped roughly two in every three races between them. It might be a little boring, but backing the one you fancy on any given race weekend may be the way forward.
Both of those drivers have a higher record of race wins coming when not on pole, so you back them even when they are a little further down the grid. Alternatively, a pre-weekend bet may work in your favour.
The truth is that, cumulatively, the two Championship favourites will win more races than they lose. When you use the right analysis to make your choice, this will bring more wins than losses.
Strategy 3: Back Veterans At Tough Events
When the weather is clear and hot while the course is fairly easy, the best cars will win. The more testing conditions can throw a spanner into the works, however, which is when you may wish to back someone else on the other markets.
After nine races of 2018, Fernando Alonso had 36 points compared to his far less experienced McLaren teammate Stoffell Vandoorne. Likewise, Kimi Raikkonen continues to rack up points (albeit in a good Ferrari car) despite primarily driving to serve and support teammate Vettel.
The experienced drivers are always good for points when the conditions suggest that rookies might struggle. Whether it’s due to the weather or outside elements, this is a great time to pounce. This can be especially useful if one of the big guns has had poor qualifying and practice sessions.
Additional Tips For Winning Big On Formula One
The advice and strategies above should provide the foundations needed to make money from the Formula One betting markets. Nevertheless, there are plenty of other factors consider en route to unlocking your full potential. Here are five that should serve you well.
- Always compare the odds from different bookmakers, paying special attention to the headline offers.
- Take advantage of sign up offers and any concessions that may be available.
- Establish a strong staking plan. There’s a long F1 season, lasting 21 races, and you don’t want erratic stakes to ruin a positive win ratio.
- Consider in-play bets (if you’re a fan that watches the race) as the clear pit stop tactics and info provided by commentators may help direct you to some increased value.
- Appreciate that you are more likely to win steady profits with respectable odds. The threat of mechanical failures will turn you away from heavy odds-on bets, but opting for major upsets will backfire too.
When combined with the right strategies regarding the actual selections, bets on F1 can be first class.
The Final Word
Given that there are only 20-21 race dates per year, you’re not going to place many bets during the season. Therefore, it’s vital that you focus on quality rather than quantity. This is a sport where statistical analysis counts for a lot. Follow the research, and you should see steady profits throughout the course of a campaign.
You may still need other sports to make your money overall, but F1 can certainly boost your bankroll in a big way. Whether you’re a motorsport fan or not, that profit is sure to leave you smiling.