However, the opportunity to guarantee profits from trading on the exchange is easily the greatest selling point for anyone serious about making money from this environment.
So, this is the way to go if you’d like to take the gamble out of betting. And here’s all you need to know.
Before You Start Trading
The promise of guaranteed profits is enough to prick the ears of everyone, betting fan or otherwise. However, there’s no such thing as a free ticket to riches in this world. If you’re expecting an easy ride from the world of betting exchange trading, you might wish to look at the big cross at the top of your browser.
If you’re new to exchange betting, we suggest starting with our Introduction to Exchange Betting article to understand the basics.
Be prepared to develop the skills and discipline needed to trade sporting outcomes for guaranteed profits, this could transform your approach to betting forever. Still interested? Let’s carry on…
Slow & Steady Wins The Race
An inexperienced or ill-disciplined punter may want to chase the big 10-fold accumulator in hopes of turning £5 into £20k. There’s nothing wrong with casual punters taking that route. In fact, many professionals will still place a small stake on the weekend’s action for fun, knowing there’s always a chance of taking their bankroll to the next level.
Generally speaking, though, this method will backfire. Pursuing profit as a punter needs to be a marathon rather than a sprint. As with other forms of financial investment, a gradual upward curve will often produce far better outcomes than a volatile curve that shoots up and down.
Aside from the financial benefits, the slow and steady approach encourages a calmer mindset, which is probably the greatest weapon in your arsenal. This is true for all punters, including sports bettors and those using the exchange betting fans.
Think about it this way: would you rather be guaranteed a 10% ROI or have a shot at 40% knowing there’s a good chance you’ll lose everything?
Exactly.
What Does Guaranteed Profit Look Like
Guaranteeing profit from sports events doesn’t mean making £100 from every event. In fact, you’ll often find that the gains are minimal. Nonetheless, if your bankroll moves in the right direction, you can have very few complaints.
To secure guaranteed profits, you should put yourself in a position where you are 100% sure to make money from the event. Even before the outcome has been finalised. So, if you are betting on a Premier League match, your situation may look like any of the following;
- Arsenal V Manchester United: a guaranteed £2 profit if arsenal wins, £4 if Manchester United win, and £1.10 if a draw.
- Tottenham playing: a guaranteed £1 profit if Harry Kane scores the first goal, or a £3 profit if he doesn’t.
- Liverpool V Manchester City: £0.40 profit if BTTS comes in, £0.85 if BTTS doesn’t come in.
The concept of guaranteeing profit can materialise on any market where all potential outcomes can be covered. If you are a semi-experienced punter, you may have already encountered this idea under Arbitrage Betting, known as Arbing, sure bets, and miracle bets.
But Isn’t Arbing Bad?
You may have heard that arbitrage betting is illegal. We can categorically dispel that myth. When using arbs, you’re simply taking advantage of market prices as any trader on any other commodity would. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean you won’t come under fire from at least one direction.
Since bookies are in the business of making money, they unsurprisingly don’t like anyone who gains an edge. So, suppose you’ve backed Manchester City to beat Liverpool at 11/10 but also backed Liverpool on a +0.5 Asian handicap for odds of 2.05. In that case, the bookmaker traders won’t be happy.
If done regularly, accounts will suddenly find themselves being limited. Is it fair? Probably not, considering how much the bookies still make from other punters. Sadly, that’s the game.
Thankfully, exchange companies don’t make their money this way, so they don’t care as long as they make their commissions. One of many benefits gained from switching to betting exchange trading. Or at least adding it to your portfolio of accounts. Basically, if you want to stop gambling and start trading, using the exchange will play a central focus. But you’ll still need to devise a winning strategy!
Give yourself an even better start with this excellent exchange betting new account bonuses!
Great Methods For Guaranteeing Profits Through Betting Exchange Trading
As with other betting strategies, traders need to find a solution that works for them. However, it’s worth noting that you don’t necessarily need a staking plan. After all, if there’s no risk of losing money, it doesn’t matter how much you put on as long as you have the bankroll to cover all possible outcomes. Conversely, if a lot of capital is tied up in one event, you don’t want it to take months to settle. Keeping your capital active is essential if you like this concept to work.
Still, the most important aspect is to know how to make money from specific events. Here’s how.
Combine Bookmakers & Exchange Trading
The easiest way to generate guaranteed profits through arbs is to back something with a bookmaker and then lay it on the exchange. As with the standard bookmakers, prices fluctuate from one platform to the next. Thanks to the exchange, this can be used to your advantage.
Goalscorer bets are an excellent option. For example, Lionel Messi might be 3/1 to score first at the best priced bookmaker while he can be layed at 2.2 on Betfair.
Back Messi for £100 with the bookmaker for a £100 outlay and a potential profit of £300.
Lay Messi at 2.12 (backer’s odds) for £150 on the exchange for a £218 liability and a chance to win £150.
If Messi doesn’t score the first goal, you’ve lost the £100 bet on the sports book. However, you’ll have won £150 (minus commission) on the exchange. Conversely, if he does score it, you’ll have lost £218 on the exchange but won £300 from the bookmaker. Depending on the outcome, you’ll have won either £50 or £82.
This can be used on other markets, but the goalscorer markets are often the most significant profits on the most frequent basis.
Beat the Momentum
Ever picked up some information before it became common knowledge and known the odds would change once that data became available? Whether it be an injury, a transfer, or a team’s travel problems doesn’t matter, those factors can be used to create great Arb opportunities.
Backing a team at 6/4 when their odds are due to drop to, say, 10/11 could open up the chance to lay them for around 1.95, which is the backer’s odds. So if the lay wins, you’ll pick up a profit of just under 105%, while the backed option would be 150%. While you will lose 100% on the losing bet, there will still be a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome.
Also, if the odds don’t need to be around the Evens mark and could be something like 1/4 against 6/1. As long as you set your stakes accordingly, you can generate an ‘all green’ spreadsheet.
This can be risky, especially if the odds don’t change as expected. However, the bookmaker is often ahead of the exchange. In the worst case scenario, you can always trade back out to break even or make a minimal loss.
Cheat
Finally, you could gain an advantage by utilising automated computer systems. Various programs crawl bookmakers and betting exchanges similarly to odds comparison sites, only with the sole intention of finding arb opportunities.
Of course, while changing odds and other factors, these costs will mean that some of the returned opportunities won’t work. Still, this can be a great way to remove the man hours.
The Quick Six: Tips That Will Help You Win More
While building a winning strategy and knowing how to calculate potential is one thing, there are still several tips that will go a long way to boosting your returns from the field of trading on sporting events. Here are six of the best:
1. Remember that arbing opportunities are few and far between. If you look at enough games and markets, you will find opportunities every single day of the week. Still, you can’t force something that isn’t there. If you can’t find something, move on.
2. Arbing opportunities aren’t limited to football. In fact, many of the most successful betting exchange traders utilise horse racing widely. Limiting yourself to football can be very stressful. The guaranteed profit percentages are likely to be relatively small due to the small number of outcomes on any given event.
3. Always take commission rates into account. Otherwise, small profits could quickly turn into minor losses. Similarly, you can manipulate stakes to ensure the most likely outcome is on the bookmaker. In that case, this can aid your cause due to the commissions.
4. Be prepared to back some events where there’s a possibility to break even. For example, suppose Chelsea plays Tottenham Hotspur. In that case, you could back Chelsea at 2.05 on the DNB market and Tottenham (2.3) on the +0 Asian handicap. While a draw would result in a refund, the fact is that you could gain a profit if either team wins. As long as you can’t lose, it’s worthwhile.
5. Beware of palpable errors. If you’ve found an Arb where Arsenal are 8/1 to beat West Ham United at home, the bookies probably meant those odds to be for the visitors. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. You may still want to back it as a regular bet in the hope of the bookmaker not realising their error, but do not trade on the strength of it.
6. Have a preferred exchange betting platform. More frequent bets secure a lower commission rate, which increases returns. Of course, you need to follow the best odds. Still, if the odds on an outcome are the same across all exchange betting platforms, stick with your most commonly used one.
Bonus Tip: Bet in one currency. Otherwise, exchange rates could ruin everything.
Disciplined and Patient Punting Pays Off
Guaranteeing profits through exchange-based arbs, exclusive to exchange books or combined with bookmakers, can only be good for disciplined and patient punters. It takes a lot of effort, there will be wasted moments along the way, and it’s certainly not for everyone. Ultimately, though, seeing your bankroll move only in one direction will indeed remove those stresses in the long haul.
Every punter’s dreams are green. If the exchange allows you to do it, you’d be a fool not to capitalise from betting exchange trading.